So, just when you think you’ve turned the corner from winter into a spring pattern you get reminded that it is only February and it’s Minnesota. It can snow in May.
That brings us to today. The models have been all over the place the last several days with a potential storm here this weekend. In fact, there were 4 consecutive runs of the GFS model that has us getting nothing, then the next run had 12″+ of snow, then the next run had mostly rain with some ice mixed in, then the next run had 15″+ of snow. So as you can see, it was all over the place. But just over the last day or so, all of the main models (ECMWF, GFS, CMC/GEM, and now the NAM) have all trended to similar tracks and strengths. The main reason for this, I believe, is that most of the energy from this potential storm has now moved on shore across the western US and is now being sampled by obsedrvations both at the surface and aloft. These observations go into the models to help them figure out a solution. Before the past 24 hours, most of the energy from this potential storm has been over the open waters of the Pacific Ocean and the models have been using mostly satellite derived observations.
Anyway, back to the storm specifics. The latest GFS (06z) gives KMSP around 0.60″ of liquid, which would equal about 6-10″ of snow. The latest NAM (12z) gives KMSP around 0.95″ of liquid (the most it’s had in the forecast yet as it just trended south over us). This would equal out to 8-12″ of snow. Other models such as the CMC/GEM and the ECMWF from 00z give the KMSP area anywhere from 1.00″-1.25″ liquid, with snow amounts of over 10″.
Needless to say, this one could be a doozy if the track is just right. The problem is that there will be warm air aloft somewhere really close by. If it makes it north into the Twin Cities, that would cut down on snow amounts considerably.
Right now, my forecast for the Twin Cities is for 4-8″ of snow from Sunday into Monday.
Updates will happen as models change. Stay tuned to this blog for periodic updates on models, etc.
