SHORT TERM: Could it be? The weather pattern finally getting a bit exciting around here? With some snow even? That’s what it looks like. Models have been converging on a potential accumulating snow event around here on Presidents day. However, there are quite a few things complicating the event. The first is that it is late February. The sun angle is getting higher and higher, the days are longer, and thus the daytime temperatures are warmer. This means for marginal events such as this one, timing is everything. If a system like this comes through overnight, snow accumulation is likely. If it comes through during the day, snow may only mix in at times, but the predominant precipitation type should be rain. For this system here in the Twin Cities, it’s likely to be a little of A and a little of B. Precipitation likely in the form of a rain/snow mix will move into the region late Monday afternoon, changing to snow after 8pm or so. A light wet snow is then expected to fall through the rest of the evening hours and most of the overnight period, wrapping up as a few flurries early Tuesday morning. Due to the warm upper level structure and general weakness of the storm, snow ratios should be pretty low. And even with several hours of light snow, accumulations of only 1-2 inches are expected. But, it’s something. The snow will be short lived, however, as temperatures are expected to rise into the mid to upper 30s on Tuesday, likely melting all of the snow that fell.
MID RANGE: Another quick moving storm system is progged by the models to move through the region late Wednesday night through the day on Thursday. This one could be a bit more interesting for a few reasons. This system will have less moisture to work with, but colder air both at the surface and aloft. A stripe of snow on the north side of this system is likely to accumulate to 2-4 inches which right now goes right through the Twin Cities metro, but slight track changes could make a huge difference. This ushers in a pretty good cold push for the end of the work week, with snow showers and flurries possible most of the day on Friday.
LA LA LAND (AKA LONG RANGE): As indicated by the title of this section, talking about something 7 days out is a hopeless thing. Details are almost always different when the forecast verifies. HOWEVER, trends in guidance can be looked at and used to indicate a potential stormy scenario. The latest guidance and guidance over the last few days has been indicating a potential winter storm this up coming weekend. There are obviously a lot of things to be ironed out, but this is the first time all winter that this strong of a signal has been indicated by the models. I will, of course, be keeping an eye on all available guidance and posting any updates.
DETAILS:
Monday: Increasing clouds. Chance for rain/snow showers late afternoon and evening. High: 41
Monday night: Rain/snow mix, changing to all snow after 8-9pm. Light snow through the night. Total accumulations of 1-2 inches possible metro wide. Low: 27
Tuesday: Morning flurries, with decreasing clouds through the day. No additional accumulation. High: 37
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Low: 25
Wednesday and Beyond: Potential accumulating snow both Thursday and during the weekend.
As always, if you have detailed questions, let me know in the comments!
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